Probability Poisson

mardi 29 octobre 2013

1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data



Suppose that 1% of cars have defective brake lights and n cars are to be inspected. How large should n be for the sample to have a probability of at least 50% of containing a car with a defective brake light? Give an answer using a Poisson approximation with an appropriate mean.



3. The attempt at a solution



Let X-Bin(n, 0.01).

We can approximate X with the Poisson distribution assuming n large and with mean 0.01n.

That is, X≈Po(0.01n).

We want P(X=1)≥ 0.5 which yields ne^-0.01n ≥ 50.



Then I'm stuck. Is this correct so far and any direction on where to go from here will be appreciated. Thanks.






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